Worst-To-First in 2011 - Which team will pull it off?

Parity in the NFL is so strong that worst-to-first finishes are not only commonplace; they are expected. In 8 consecutive seasons, at least one team has finished in first place in its division the season after finishing in last place. Let’s take a look at the list of teams to do so since 2000:

Season	Team	Record	Prior Season Record
2000	Saints	10-6	3-13
2001	Bears	13-3	5-11
2001	Patriots	11-5	5-11
2003	Panthers	11-5	7-9
2003	Chiefs	13-3	8-8
2004	Falcons	11-5	5-11
2004	Chargers	12-4	4-12
2005	Bears	11-5	5-11
2005	Buccaneers	11-5	5-11
2006	Ravens	13-3	6-10
2006	Saints	10-6	3-13
2006	Eagles	10-6	6-10
2007	Buccaneers	9-7	4-12
2008	Dolphins	11-5	1-15
2009	Saints	13-3	8-8
2010	Chiefs	10-6	4-12

Plenty more teams have clinched a wildcard berth the season after finishing in last place in their division. The point is, we can pretty much guarantee that one of the following teams will win the wildcard or win their division in 2011 (if there is a season):

Buffalo Bills

Cincinnati Bengals

Tennessee Titans

Denver Broncos

Washington Redskins

Minnesota Vikings

Carolina Panthers

Arizona Cardinals

These 8 teams each finished in last place of their respective divisions in 2010. We’ll be seeing one of them in the playoffs in 2010. Last year, we predicted the Buccaneers to be that team, and they almost did, finishing 10-6. Who will it be this year?

We did a ton of research on the 16 teams that pulled this feat of to try to identify trends that we can use to help us. We came up with some interesting facts:

· Typically, these teams were ones that had an off-year and finished last in their division. Their usually not bottom dwellers in their division. And maybe surprisingly, they don’t look like the team’s improving. In fact, 13 of the 16 teams had a better record the year before they finished last than the year they did. For example:

2005 Buccaneers: 11-5 record

2006 Buccaneers: 4-12 record (last place)

2007 Buccaneers: 9-7 record (first place)

We often saw things like this, although it was more like 7-9 – to 4-12 – to 10-6 rather than 2-14 – to 5-11 – to 10-6.

· 8 of the 16 teams had at least one above average unit (either top 16 offense or defense in terms of DVOA%) the year they finished last, so it wasn’t like they needed to fix both units. Half the time it was just a team needing to fix their bottom 5 ranked defense or offense.

· Digging deeper into the last fact, we split the units into pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, and rush defense because those are the 4 most important facets of football. 10 of the 16 teams had at least one above average unit (out of 4) and several of them had 2.

· 11 of the 16 teams had new quarterbacks. By that, we mean they had a different QB lead the team in games started than they did the year before. Only one of them (Kyle Orton) was a rookie QB, however.

· The teams were typically better than their record indicated in the year that they finished last place. This is determined by the “Expected W-L” stat on pfr.com, which uses point differential to estimate what the team’s record “should have been” without any luck involved. 10 of the 16 teams had a higher Expected W-L record than their actual record in the year that they finished in last place.

· Except for 3 teams that each went 0-4 in their last 4 games (of the season they finished last); the other 13 teams went 23-29 in their last 4 games combined. That’s a winning % of .442 compared to the .308 winning % for all 16 games the team’s averaged.

With this information, we’re going to try to predict 2011’s last-to-first team:

We’ve assembled a table to help us. Here’s what each category means:

- 2009 > 2010: As mentioned before – team’s that had a better record in 2009 than they did last year (2010).

- New QB: If the team projects to have a different QB lead the team in starts than they did last year.

- Above Average Unit (Off./Def.): If the team had an above average (top 16) total offense or total defense in terms of DVOA% last year.

- Above Average Facet: If the team had an above average pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, or rush defense last year.

- Unlucky Record: If the team’s “Expected W-L” record is higher than their actual win loss record.

- Injuries: If the team had an “unlucky” or inflated amount of injuries last year.

- Close game losses: If the team lost 6 or more “close games”, or one possession games.

- Last 4 games: If the team went at least 2-2 in their last 4 games of 2010-11.

- SOS: If the team had an above average, or top 16 strength of schedule last year.

- 1^st Down Diff.: 1^st down differential. If the team recorded more total first down on offense than they allowed on defense. Why is this important? Take a look at an example advancednflstats.com gives:

If the team follows any of the above requirements, the appropriate table slot will be filled in for them (in their color). Ignore the boxes that are filled in white, those are blank or not filled in.

Team	2009 > 2010	New QB	Above Average Unit (Off./Def.)	Above Average Facet	Unlucky record	Injuries	Close game losses	Last 4 games	SOS	1st Down Diff.
Bills
Bengals
Titans
Broncos
Redskins
Vikings
Panthers
Cardinals		*

*Assuming the Cardinals acquire Kevin Kolb (which they will)

And the winner is………………………

The Cincinnati Bengals! It was a close finish between the Bengals and Vikings, both of whom I believe will have much better 2011 seasons than they did in 2010. Both team’s got genuinely unlucky last year. As for the Bengals, they got a bit unluckier last year. They also had the #28 ranked special teams, which is generally believed to be 90% luck and normalizes from year to year. They also had a -8 turnover differential, another stat that typically normalizes from year to year. If they duplicate their 2010 stats, with a better special teams unit and turnover differential, they’d be expected to win over 9 games.

The main reason I give them the tiebreaker over the Vikings is strength of schedule. The AFC North has the fortune of playing the NFC West this year. The division will be better in 2011, but it’s steal easily the worst in the NFL. Additionally, their first 5 games are @ Cleveland, @ Denver, vs. San Francisco, vs. Buffalo, @ Jacksonville. They could easily be 3-2 or even 4-1 coming out of that. They have the easiest schedule in the NFL at first glance.

The Bengals ranked 29^th in rush offense a year ago, which was well below their talent level. Cedric Benson will have a better year, and the run blocking should improve. Overall, the offensive line is one of the top 10 units in the NFL.

As for the passing offense, Carson Palmer is pretty much done at this point in his career and will be traded. They may bring in a veteran or they may go with Andy Dalton right off the bat. Either way, they have a good young receiving core with AJ Green, Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham. Then there’s the veteran Chad Ochocinco and Jerome Simpson, who came on strong late last year. Additionally, the Bengals have a top 10 offensive line and should have an above average running game. So there won’t be too much pressure put on the rookie QB.

On defense, the Bengals have a pretty good unit. They figure to lose Jonathan Joseph, but they still have a good core of players – Leon Hall, Domata Peko, Rey Maulaluga, Keith Rivers, Carlos Dunlap.

Overall, the Bengals are our best guess to go from last place to first place in 2011. Thanks for reading, and obviously most you will disagree.